WORKSHOP PRESENTATION
Predicting Climate with Models and Oracles
C. Roberto Mechoso, Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, UCLA
Professor Mechoso was unable to attend the Workshop. However, he sent a story that illustrates some of the difficulties facing climate modelers and policy makers.
From the classics:
- Herodotus tells that Creso, King of Lydia, sent emissaries to "validate" the oracles before asking for a prediction.
- The validation question was "What is Creso doing at this very moment?"
- Only the Oracle at Delphi, speaking on behalf of Apollo, gave the answer known only to the emissaries: "Creso is cooking a turtle."
- Thus, this oracle was selected for the prediction "Would Creso succeed if he attacks Ciro?”
- The answer was: "If Creso attacks Ciro, one kingdom will disappear.”
- Creso attacked, was defeated, and his kingdom disappeared.
- The prediction was successful; the interpretation was wrong.
+ Home
