WORKSHOP
Weather and Climate Models: Their Strengths and Limitations
NASW 2003 Denver
National Association of Science Writers Workshops, Weather and Climate Track
Colorado Convention Center
Thursday, February 13, 2003
2:00-3:20 p.m.
Organizer: Jarrett Cohen, Senior Science Writer, Computational Technologies Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Computer models are being employed in tasks ranging from 7-day weather forecasts to interannual predictions of El Niño/La Niña and their climatic effects to simulations of decades-long global warming scenarios. This backgrounder panel will provide a brief history of weather and climate modeling and report on current practices, recent improvements, and expected near-term advances. Panelists discuss how well the models represent the world and how much governments can rely on them for making policies. The panel also evaluates if the media have paid adequate attention to these issues, especially in communicating both the power and limitations of these models.
Moderator: C. Roberto Mechoso, Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles
- Presentation Topic: Predicting Climate with Models and Oracles
- Background: UCLA Earth System Modeling Group
Panelists:
Lisa Goddard, Research Scientist, Forecasting and Prediction Research, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
- Presentation Topic: Computer Models for Seasonal Climate Prediction: What They Can Tell Us, and What They Can’t Tell Us
- PowerPoint (357 KB), PDF (702 KB) - Article: L. Goddard, S.J. Mason, S.E. Zebiak, C.F. Ropelewski, R. Basher, and M.A. Cane, 2001: "Current Approaches to Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Predictions," International Journal of Climatology, Volume 21, Issue 9, pp. 1111-1152.
PDF (9.8 MB)
Stephen H. Schneider, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University
- Presentation Topic: Can We Discern Simplification from Oversimplification in Presenting Uncertainty-Laden Science?
- Article: Stephen H. Schneider, 2002: "Keeping Out of the Box," American Scientist, Volume 90, pp. 496-498.
PDF (206 KB) - Book Excerpts: S.H. Schneider, A. Rosencranz, and J.-O. Niles, (eds.), 2002: Climate Change Policy: A Survey, Washington D.C.: Island Press, 563 pp.
Chapter 1: "Understanding Climate Science," Richard Wolfson and Stephen H. Schneider
PDF (932 KB)
Chapter 2: "Uncertainty and Climate Change Policy," Stephen H. Schneider and Kristin Kuntz-Duriseti
PDF (417 KB)
Andrew C. Revkin, Environment Reporter, The New York Times
- Presentation Topic: The Weakest Link: Whose Fault Is It That the Media Fail to Convey What Climate Science Is All About?
- Articles: "U.S. Sees Problems in Climate Change" (June 3, 2002); "Sunken Fires Menace Land and Climate" (January 15, 2002); and "The Devil is in the Details" (July 3, 2001)
